India-China relations will be in focus as Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will leave for New Delhi on a two-day state visit on Friday.
This will be her second visit to India in less than two weeks and the first incoming bilateral visit to India by any head of government after the formation of the government in Delhi following the 18th Lok Sabha elections.
Prime Minister Hasina was among the global leaders who attended the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Union Council of Ministers on June 9.
She will visit Beijing in the second week of July.
In Delhi, she will hold bilateral consultations with Prime Minister Modi and is also scheduled to call on President Draupadi Murmu and Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will call on the Prime Minister after she arrives in Delhi in the evening.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry has remained silent. Unlike other bilateral visits, there was no curtain-raiser for the media. The Foreign Ministry did not issue any official statement about the visit either. Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud, who has been in Saudi Arabia as part of his hajj plans, will join the prime minister in Delhi.
The Prime Minister’s Office detailed the itinerary of the visit yesterday. The two leaders will have a tête-à-tête on Saturday morning before the formal bilateral meeting.
Preparations are underway for at least 10 agreements and MoUs related to energy, connectivity and economy to be signed after the bilateral meeting. Many of them are due for renewal at the end of their terms, according to foreign ministry sources.
Issues of connectivity will be an important element of discussion. The Bangladesh-India Friendship Bridge is one of the projects to be announced open during the visit. This bridge will establish a link between Ramgarh in Khagrachhari, and Sabrum in Tripura state.
India-China relations in focus
For a long time, the Teesta water sharing issue has been a topic that comes to the fore during any visit between India and Bangladesh.
When this visit was planned, the issue was widely discussed despite the lack of an internal settlement in India that could lead to a solution to it. The Indian central government, at the time led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, could not sign the deal in 2011 due to the opposition of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Ms Banerjee, who had been scheduled to travel to Dhaka as part of Singh’s team, backed out at the last moment, scuttling the effort to resolve the Teesta issue.
Since the issue has remained pending for a long time and northern Bangladesh faces an acute shortage of water during the dry season, the government has taken up a Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project which will require about $1 billion for implementation. China has stepped in to fund the project. However, India has also shown interest in financing the project.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra, during his visit to Dhaka in May to invite the prime minister, expressed Delhi's interest in the project. This triggered a geopolitical discussion about which option Bangladesh will go for.
India supported Bangladesh during the Liberation War in 1971 and remains Dhaka’s most trusted friend. India is also believed to have supported the Awami League government before the January 7 general elections this year when Western countries, particularly the US, were putting pressure on the government for a “free and fair” election.
On the other hand, in recent years, China has financed major infrastructure projects that the government boasts of.
The US-based research lab AidData, while analyzing Chinese investment in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) last year said that compared to only $175 million per year during the BNP era (2002-06), Chinese development financing doubled to $381 million in Bangladesh during Sheikh Hasina’s first term (2009-14). Since then, it has risen seven-fold to $2.2 billion (2014-2018) and $2.3 billion (2019-till date).
AidData, housed at William & Mary's Global Research Institute in Virginia, also said that Bangladesh will likely remain “a key battleground for great power competition” in the coming years given its unique locational position and recent geopolitical trends.
It’s not zero-sum game
International relations experts, however, believe that relations with India or China need not be a zero-sum game.
“We should transform geopolitical conflict into geopolitical cooperation,” Prof Imtiaz Ahmed of Dhaka University told Dhaka Tribune.
“We always see it as a zero-sum game. But India and China have good relations in several areas. They work together in BRICS. They are together when it comes to the issue of the Russia, Ukraine war. Voting on Myanmar issues, both China and India were on the same page in the UN. Even India’s trade with China also increased. Indian students are now going to China to study more than to the UK. Then why cannot we cooperate here together?”
He said it is a multi-polar world, and India with its economy, surpassing the UK and France, would be “polar” in that world; there is no way to stop it.
“Many of the statements of Jaishankar (Indian external affairs minister) regarding the Russia and Ukraine war went viral as he tried to convince the EU ...‘don’t take us (India) for granted. India will go with the Indian way’. So, he tried to push for a new framework. And I want to see Bangladesh, India relations within that framework,” Prof Imtiaz said.
“I think relations with India need to be innovated. New elements need to be added to the relations,” he said, as the Teesta water sharing and border killing always take centre stage in discussions.
“Teesta is not possible because there are 26 live hydropower projects over it in Sikkim and after all that the amount of water that comes to West Bengal during winter is not sufficient for them. So, naturally any chief minister of West Bengal will oppose the agreement.
“At the same time, we are also suffering. Some 102 kilometers out of 115 kilometers of the river inside Bangladesh dry up during winter. And it’s just the opposite during the rainy season. So, about 20 million people suffer for that. That’s why the Teesta comprehensive management project is being planned here by the Bangladesh government.
“But who will bear this huge cost? China showed interest. India also showed interest in this project. Maybe there is security interest for India if China enters here. Upstream countries always have diplomatic interest in water. China is also doing that with India when it comes to river Brahmaputra. I think here we can transform the geopolitical conflicts into geopolitical co-operation,” he said.
Prof Shahab Enam Khan, at the Department of International Relations of Jahangirnagar University, also believes that none of the countries are “either-or” options for Bangladesh.
“India, the US, and China each have unique and different roles in Bangladesh. It would be rational if Bangladesh’s relations with other countries were seen independently,” he said.
“Using a third-country prism in Bangladesh’s bilateral relations undermines the country’s national interests and growth momentum. China is the largest trading and infrastructure partner, Japan is the most significant development partner, the US is the most crucial partner in humanitarian assistance and trade, and the largest investor.
“Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, providing security support to India in keeping its northeastern region safe. Bangladesh plays an essential role in the Indian economy through trade, connectivity from the mainland to its Northeast, and tourism or medical visits.
“Of course, Indian support for the current government is extraordinary, and India plays a crucial role in supplying essential goods and raw materials. None of these countries is an ‘either-or’ option for Bangladesh,” he said.
“Hence, seeing Bangladesh-China ties from myopic geopolitical or strategic interests won't positively affect Bangladesh’s economy and security interests. Practically speaking, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visits to Delhi and Beijing reflect different priorities for the government,” the JU professor added.
