International media has also projected Nawaz Sharif as future PM but it remains unclear if he would be able to obtain simple majority       The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) supporters during the Kasur rally on February 6, 2024. — Facebook/PML(N) 

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) will likely emerge as the single largest party and the Pakistan Peoples Party as a distant second followed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and other parties, according to an assessment report by a government organization.

The analysis has been carried out on the basis of information collected from police sources, revenue department, labor unions and interviews with professionals in different fields, an official told this reporter.

The assessment, he explained, has been carried out at the police station and union council level. The surveys have been carried out in a scientific manner in order to remove the possibility of miscalculation, he said.

Although the surveys conducted so far have laid out an optimistic projection of the PMLN with regard to its approval rate, which has registered a rise since the return of Nawaz Sharif, none has offered an assessment in terms of seats the party would likely win.

The international media has also projected Nawaz Sharif as the future prime minister but it remains unclear if he would be able to obtain a simple majority.

However, going by this official assessment, the PMLN is likely to win between 115 and 132 National Assembly seats. Adding together, the reserved seats of women and minority would mean the party stands a chance to form its government single-handedly with simple majority if the official assessment turns out right. As for the provincial assembly seats, the assessment puts them around 190, out of 297 meaning thereby absolute majority in the Punjab Assembly.

According to the official, the party may sweep in the Punjab except in a few districts. While the PML-N will likely form the government by a two-thirds majority in the biggest province, the official projections suggest, it would be able to become a lead player in making coalition governments in KP and Balochistan whereas the Pakistan Peoples Party is likely to have its government in Sindh alone. In the Centre, the PPP is expected to bag 35 to 40 seats, according to the assessment report, whereas the PTI’s independent candidates may fetch 23 to 29 seats. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement has been assessed to obtain 12-14 seats, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam 6-8 seats, and Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party are likely to pull 2-3 seats each in the National Assembly.

According to the official, the PMLN showed extra care in awarding tickets this time, as surveys were conducted to gauge the position of ticket aspirants.

In addition, the police and intelligence agencies also shared their input about the prospects of candidates before the tickets were allotted.