【Text/M.K.Badrakuma Translated by Observer Net by Guanqun】

On November 12, Prime Minister Modi's speech at the 17th ASEAN-India summit was sad. The specific background of Prime Minister Modi’s speech is that this Sunday, the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) will be signed into effect-an important free trade agreement centered on ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea.

Modi tried his best to avoid mentioning the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in his speech, although for ASEAN, signing the agreement is a happy moment, just like Diwali means to the Indians. Modi adopted a roundabout strategy-talking about "Made in India", "Eastward Policy", "Indo-Pacific Initiative" and "ASEAN Center."

On November 15, the signing ceremony of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) filmed in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. Source: Xinhua News Agency

Southeast Asia is what India calls the core area in its "Eastward Policy", and the policy options that India can take towards Southeast Asia have shrunk dramatically. The U.S. Department of Defense think tank Rand Corporation recently published a research report-"Regional Response to U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific Region". This report only lists Japan, Australia, and India as the only Washington that can confidently declare that China has more diplomatic and military influence over its allies and partners.

RAND analysts have reached some shocking conclusions:

· China’s economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region is “greater” than the United States. · Compared with security concerns, ASEAN countries are more concerned about the economy. · China can “use its economic influence to achieve a variety of goals, including weakening the military influence of the United States.” · At present, “there is little evidence” that ASEAN countries believe that the “military influence of the United States is part of China's economic influence. Kind of checks and balances" Southeast Asian countries are generally worried about whether the United States can fulfill its commitments to the region. · China’s influence in ASEAN countries is greater than ours; and, · “For Southeast Asian countries and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region, they strongly hope to avoid siding between the United States and China or show obvious alliance and confrontation with one country. The attitude of another country. We (the RAND Corporation) believe that the alliance between the United States and its partner countries is fragile and incomplete."

The report did not talk about Donald Trump and Joe Biden, which attracted the attention of Indian analysts. Instead, it emphasized that “(in the countries of the region) people generally expect China to surpass the United States as a country in the next ten to fifteen years. The world’s largest economy will play a key role in promoting regional economic growth... (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) will deepen economic ties between relevant countries. People expect that their country’s trade with China will continue to increase."

Modi’s frustrating remarks echoed the anxiety and concerns in the Rand report. The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is a decisive moment. ASEAN is boarding the upcoming "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" train, while India has been left behind. Its other two "G4" partners-Japan and Australia-are also on the train. People see These two countries are now in the dining car, holding a pair of Chinese chopsticks.

Of course, this trip will take ASEAN never to return to a foreign country. The wailing of Modi's call for another picnic is unattractive to ASEAN, because ASEAN has already begun a mature and stable relationship, which is precisely what the capricious India cannot give.

Out of courtesy, ASEAN also invited India to join while joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, but both sides knew that this would never happen.

As the train of "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" starts to accelerate, ASEAN will adapt to the new way of life and begin to constantly look for opportunities to make itself more comfortable. Analysts praised the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" as the world's second largest trade agreement, second only to the World Trade Organization agreement itself.

The saddest thing is that, in this process, China has also taken away the China-phobia mantra that India has always cherished-"a free, open, inclusive and rule-based Indo-Pacific region"; "navigation and flying over free". Ironically, the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" is "free, open and inclusive", but India did not realize this and chose to ignore it instead.

There is no doubt that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is "rule-based." After arduous negotiations, 15 Asia-Pacific countries held 31 rounds of negotiations and 18 ministerial meetings before finally reaching an agreement "text."

In fact, the main goal of this agreement is to unify the various existing "ASEAN+1" free trade agreements into a single agreement and establish a set of coherent trade rules for the Indo-Pacific region. The agreement also includes many regulatory provisions related to 21st century trade issues, such as services, investment, e-commerce, telecommunications and intellectual property regulations.

Now, the total population of these 15 "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" participating countries account for nearly one-third of the global population, and their output value accounts for about 30% of global GDP. In terms of trade volume, the 30% share of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is only slightly less than the 33% share of the EU Customs Union. As the economies of the Indo-Pacific region rapidly deepen their trade ties with each other, the share of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is expected to soon surpass that of Europe.

Then, the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" will generate such a huge volume of maritime traffic after it takes effect next year that the slogan of "Freedom of Navigation" in the South China Sea sounds so absurd. Think about it, China is also the biggest stakeholder!

Take Japan and Australia, two India’s "G4" partner countries as examples. Trade with member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement accounts for nearly 50% of Japan’s total trade value, 61% of Australia’s total two-way trade, and 71% of my country’s exports.

This will be the first free trade agreement signed between Japan and China and South Korea, which will promote the export of Japanese agricultural products and other products. Australia has already signed a free trade agreement with China.

After the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, the tariff cancellation rate of Japan's agricultural imports from ASEAN will reach 61%, the tariff cancellation rate of Chinese agricultural products will reach 56%, and the tariff cancellation rate of Korean agricultural products will reach 49%. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement will also reduce or eliminate tariffs on industrial products such as auto parts, steel and chemical products. See the figure below for details.

"Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" will bring huge benefits to member states and the world economy. Picture source: Global Times

Modi’s speech showed that people have fully understood the far-reaching impact of events in India’s neighboring countries. India's poor anti-epidemic measures mean that Indian companies will not be able to start operations for a long time. At the same time, the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" will begin to redefine the Asia-Pacific economic and strategic map.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is based only on a set of regional trade rules, which will change the economic prospects of its member countries. The reduction of intra-regional trade and investment will inevitably prompt the member states of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to pay more attention to deepening their economic ties.

To be sure, the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" heralds the emergence of a new post-epidemic regional supply chain. With the formation of the new "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" supply chain, India not only excluded itself, but also inadvertently contributed to its "natural enemy" China as the main driving force for growth in the Asia-Pacific region.

In terms of relative importance, economic relations outside the region will no longer be ASEAN’s priority. Even if there is a partial "decoupling" between China and the United States, no country in the Asia-Pacific region will be involved. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement is actually an ASEAN-led initiative. It is based on the six "ASEAN + 1 Free Trade Agreements" and it ensures the core position of ASEAN in regional economic institutions.

At the same time, the RAND report also thoroughly analyzed how the influence of the United States on its "Group of Four" allies will be affected. The United States only "has the greatest diplomatic and political influence in all indicators" on Japan. Australia came in second, but Canberra doubted the United States’ commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, including “increasing concerns about the reliability and predictability of the United States.”

RAND considers India to be a qualified ally. RAND estimates that India considers China to be "the most threatening and the most significant long-term security challenge... In India's view, China is too threatening to regard it as a friend, but it is too dangerous to be a blatant enemy. "Therefore, "China's military superiority prevents Indian policymakers from choosing sides, lest they trigger an all-out war between China and India."

All in all, India cannot choose to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, and the "Group of Four" will not become India's natural safe haven. At the same time, the decision to take the lead in the "Group of Four" and the promotion of relations between the countries of the Group of Four to ministerial level were mainly based on an assumption that later proved to be extremely flawed, that is, President Trump will definitely be re-elected and Mike Pompeo will be the preferred colleague of the Modi administration in Washington.

In Modi's speech, it is obvious that a series of incredible diplomatic mistakes has led to India's current strategic dilemma. The enthusiasm that Modi showed in his speech at Shangri-La, Singapore in June 2018 has disappeared. Modi's ASEAN colleagues should have noticed this.

(The Observer Network was translated by Guan Qun from the "Hindu Wishes" website)